The Climate Crisis and its Looming Impact on State Credit Ratings: Why States Becoming the "Insurer of Last Resort" Is a Cause for Concern

As the tangible and often devastating impacts of climate change become increasingly prevalent, insurance companies are re-evaluating their risk profiles. Giants in the industry, such as State Farm and Allstate, have begun pulling out of states like California, Florida, and Louisiana—areas particularly vulnerable to wildfires, hurricanes, and rising sea levels. In response, state governments may find themselves compelled to step in as the “insurer of last resort” to protect their citizens. While this may offer a short-term solution to a pressing problem, it poses a material risk to state credit ratings and, consequently, financial stability.

Financial Risks for State Governments

When private insurance becomes scarce or excessively expensive, it falls upon the state to provide a safety net. For example, The Louisiana Citizens Property Insurance Corporation (often simply called "Louisiana Citizens") is a state-backed insurance provider created to offer property insurance to Louisiana residents who cannot obtain it through the private market. Louisiana Citizen functions as the "insurer of last resort,” and was formed after escalating insurance premiums and a declining number of insurers willing to offer policies, particularly in areas prone to accelerating instances of natural disasters. In just the past three years, the number of properties requiring last-resort coverage by Louisiana Citizens has skyrocketed, along with the associated risk to the state.

Establishing state-backed insurance pools demands substantial financial reserves to cover potential catastrophic events, particularly as these policyholders are often being abandoned by private insurers due to their greater risk. These reserves compete for resources with other essential services like education, healthcare, and infrastructure. Even a single devastating event can overwhelm the state's emergency funds, leading to an untenable fiscal situation.

Negative Impact on State Credit Ratings

Credit rating agencies look at a range of factors when determining a state’s creditworthiness, including fiscal health, economic strength, and governance. Having to act as the insurer of last resort can negatively impact all of these variables:

1. Fiscal Health: The need to maintain large financial reserves for insurance claims limits the availability of funds for other state expenditures. Budgetary imbalances, especially if recurrent, are red flags for credit rating agencies.
2. Economic Strength: In the absence of reliable insurance, property values typically decline, businesses relocate, and unemployment rises. These economic setbacks would reduce tax revenue, further eroding fiscal health and making the state less appealing to investors.
3. Governance: Political decisions to enter the insurance market could be scrutinized as increasing the state's exposure to high-risk, unpredictable expenditures. Poor governance decisions regarding insurance can amplify risks and uncertainties, thereby affecting credit ratings.

The Downward Spiral

A lower credit rating means higher borrowing costs and reduced ability to raise funds through bonds. This situation creates a feedback loop, as higher debt servicing costs further strain the budget, potentially leading to yet another downgrade. For states already grappling with unfunded liabilities like pension obligations or debt from infrastructure projects, the additional burden of acting as an insurer can prove to be the tipping point.

Profitability over Sustainability

Insurance companies continue to weigh profit over sustainable business practices. A recent report by the leading global pure-play sustainability consultancy, ERM, and sustainable finance advocacy group Ceres and climate accounting software company Persefoni, identifies how insurance companies invest in fossil fuels even as climate risks to underwriting mount. As supporting evidence points to an immediate future of accelerating climate risk and associated destructive events, an insurance industry inclined to profit over sustainable finance, and then willing to abandon those markets once they are unsustainable, increasingly pushes the financial burden on state governments. 

Potential Loss of Federal Support

If multiple states find themselves in a precarious financial situation due to climate risks, it is not guaranteed that the federal government can, or will, bail them out. This uncertainty further compounds the risk profile of these states.

Balancing Ethical Commitments and Fiscal Responsibility

While the ethical and social imperatives of providing insurance in the wake of private sector retreat are undeniable, states must be acutely aware of the long-term implications for their credit ratings. A holistic approach to mitigating climate risk—ranging from investing in resilient infrastructure to fostering public-private partnerships for insurance—must be adopted. Failing to do so will not only imperil individual states but will also introduce systemic risks that could reverberate through the national economy.